Tuesday, 31 January 2023, 9:15-18:30
Aula Pagani, Civitas Bd. Ex-U7 (floor 3)
Piazza Ateneo Nuovo, 1
20126 Milano – Italy

Due to the pandemic shock, inflation has "returned" in the eurozone. The energy crisis triggered by Russia's war in Ukraine has added further pressure, leading to a 10.6% headline inflation in October 2022. Supply-side developments related to energy markets and supply chains, or second rounds wage effects, are likely candidates for further inflationary pressure in the short term. The inflationary outlook is gloomy also in the medium term, as most of the favourable supply-side developments during the Great Moderation are at risk of undoing due to de-globalization forces reducing international trade and technological, capital, and migratory flows. Against these scenarios, the workshop assembles a group of policymakers and researchers to present and discuss recent scientific results and advance policy solutions. The morning session features a Keynote Speech by Mike Spence (NYU, Bocconi). A Policy Panel follows the keynote speech contributed by Marco Buti (EC Commission), Daniel Gros (Center for European Policy Studies), and Agostino Consolo (ECB). The afternoon session is an academic session and foresees one Keynote Speech by Tommaso Monacelli (Bocconi University) and 4 CefES speakers (Andrea Colciago, Gino Gancia, Silvia Marchesi, Claudio Morana).

PROGRAM

9:15 Welcome: Giovanna Iannantuoni (Rector UNIMIB), Claudio Morana (CefES Director)

9:30-10:30 Keynote Speech: Mike Spence (Bocconi University; New York University) “Beyond the Great
Moderation? Deglobalization and secular inflation”

10:30-11 Coffee Break

11-12:45 Policy Panel: Patrizio Tirelli (University of Pavia; CefES)

• Marco Buti (EU Commission) “Tackling the economic fall out of the war: does reform of the EU fiscal rules help?)
• Daniel Gros (CEPS) (After the energy price inflation of 2022, can the ECB chart a path toward price stability?)
• Agostino Consolo (ECB) (Energy price shocks and the unemployment-inflation trade-off)

12:45-14:30 Lunch

14:30-15:30 Keynote Speech: Tommaso Monacelli (Bocconi University) “The Origin of Inflation”

15:30-16:00 Coffee break

16:00-17:30/18:00 CefES Session

• 16:00-16:30 Claudio Morana, “Euro area inflation and a new measure of core inflation”
• 16:30-17:00 Andrea Colciago, “Carbon taxation, reallocation, and productivity”
• 17:00-17:30 Gino Gancia, “Robot Imports and firm-level outcomes”
• 17:30-18:00 Silvia Marchesi, “Distributional consequences of sovereign default risk”

17:30/18:00 Concluding Remarks – Silvia Marchesi (CefES Vice-Director)

19:00 Cocktail reception + Dinner